Home โ€บ Methodology

Methodology

How the numbers are built โ€” and what we will not claim

The data

Live box scores and per-game game logs come from ESPN; deep season & career history โ€” a quarter-century of it (back to 2001) โ€” is layered in from sports-reference. We track the full ranked & high-major Division I men's universe โ€” the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and Big East plus every AP/Coaches-ranked program โ€” roughly 80 current teams and 1,000+ active players, plus thousands of historical players in the stat explorer. Every category is captured: points, rebounds, assists, threes, steals, blocks, turnovers, minutes, shooting splits and advanced marks (PER, TS%, BPM). Missing data renders as โ€”, never a fake zero.

The projection engine

A player's projection is a per-game estimate. We look at each stat's recent game-by-game history and weight the most recent games most heavily, because current form tells us more than what happened months ago. When a player has only a handful of games, we lean on how the position typically produces until enough games pile up to trust the player's own rate โ€” college rosters turn over hard, so we lean on that longer than most. From there we work out the chance the player goes over or under a given number for each stat.

The honesty program

When a sportsbook posts a real line and price, we compare our number to the fair market price โ€” the price with the book's built-in margin removed โ€” and only flag a side when our number genuinely disagrees with it. When no line exists (off-season, or a stat the books don't post), the projection is shown as information only, with no edge or pick attached. We don't publish a profit or win/loss record we haven't proven is genuinely ahead of the market. The Accuracy page shows how accurate our published percentages have been โ€” that's about honesty, not a promise that any number can beat the market.

Grading

Once the season is live, every projection is graded the next morning against the box score, on the game's local date. A prop that lands exactly on the line is a push; a player who does not play is a void (pending), never a loss. Graded results feed the accuracy page; no result is counted against a stat it does not actually measure.

Every stat, in plain English

what each column on a player page means
StatWhat it is
PTSPoints scored per game.
REBTotal rebounds (offensive + defensive) per game.
ASTAssists โ€” passes that directly lead to a made basket โ€” per game.
3PMThree-pointers made per game.
STLSteals per game.
BLKBlocked shots per game.
TOTurnovers per game โ€” lower is better.
MINMinutes played per game โ€” a read on the player's role.
PRAPoints + Rebounds + Assists combined โ€” the most common combo prop.
FG% / 3P% / FT%Share of field goals, threes and free throws made.
eFG%Effective field-goal %, which credits a three as worth more than a two.
TS%True shooting % โ€” overall scoring efficiency counting twos, threes and free throws together.
PERPlayer Efficiency Rating โ€” a single per-minute summary of all-around production (from sports-reference).
BPMBox Plus/Minus โ€” points per 100 possessions a player adds above an average one (from sports-reference).

How to read a player page

Per-game averages & last-10 form sit at the top so you see the baseline and whether the player is trending above or below it right now. Shooting splits and our projection follow. Below that, hit-rate cards show how often the player cleared a typical line over his last 5, 10, 15 and 20 games โ€” gold means he cleared it at least 70% of the time. The game-log chart lets you drag any number to test a line yourself, and the splits break output down by wins/losses, home/away and month. Deep career-by-season history โ€” back to 2001 where available โ€” rounds it out.

Common questions

the short version

Is this a betting service? No. It's a research and projections tool. We flag where our number disagrees with a posted line, but we don't sell picks or claim a proven edge.

Where do the numbers come from? Live box scores and game logs from ESPN; deep season & career history from sports-reference. Every displayed number is computed once from that data and read straight onto the page.

Why is so much of the site historical right now? It's the off-season. The projection board, matchups and grading switch on when games return in November โ€” but the leaders, players, teams, rankings and full career histories are live year-round.

What does a blank / โ€” mean? Missing data. We never fill a gap with a fake zero โ€” an unknown value stays a dash.

For entertainment & information only. 21+. Please play responsibly. The CBB King is not affiliated with the NCAA or any member institution.